Va 5th on the numbers

DISCLAIMER: If my numbers are inaccurate it is because the website I am using is inaccurate.. Please check for yourself

After taking a peek at the congressional finance reports for the local candidates campaigns I am lead to draw some conclusions.

Tom Parriello has already raised 1.6 MIllion dollars for this campaign. Its only May, which means he could raise another Million, or more before the general election depending on PAC contributions, his current fund-raising efforts etc… Looking at his 2008 Campaign numbers he spent just under 2 million dollars on his last campaign. More than 200k was provided through PAC funding, and to date he has already received 400K from PAC funding this go around.  It is not unthinkable he could find more PAC money with his close relationship with the President. It is also not unlikely that he could get some big support from other campaigns in return for his unpopular  health care vote. Lets also remember that he spent 100k less than our last congressman to win the election by a tight margin. We can only hope much of that was due to the Presidential election cycle and the millions spent on trying to bring “change”. With any luck many of his supporters last time around will not be voting in this election. This could also play out for a republican candidate in much the same way, people do not get rid of their congressman between presidential elections.. it just doesn’t happen very often.

So no matter how angry and upset we all are about who we have in office, we have a long road ahead of us if we are going to stand a chance at changing the tide in our favor.

Before I jump into the basket of potential opponents lets remember a couple things about campaign finances. 70% or more of the money spent in a campaign is spent on voter contact. Most congressional candidates will need six or more contacts with the entire field of voters in order to get enough name recognition to win. This is in all reality a game of Branding, not of winning minds.

That being said, those with larger budgets often win elections because they can afford more contact and higher quality contact with the voters. A yard sign does not tell people who you are. A mailer only tells a small percentage of the recipients anything about you.. for those that even open the letters in many cases they will end up in the wrong hands, or in the garbage in 10 seconds flat. The same can be said of post cards, and even telephone calls. In the end the higher quality mediums to reaching people like events, interviews, radio, television, etc.. are very expensive. Those with more money will get more contact, and more branded name recognition. More money = easier to win.

As a business owner that helps people spend their advertising dollars I would also remind all of us that in reality most people don’t know who you are or what your about until they have seen or heard your name 10 times. In this case even five or seven contact points will not be enough for average people to know a single thing about a candidate. Campaigning is like trying to catch a fly in mid flight with a pair of chopsticks. Even when someone learns who you are, they are often going to make up their mind by means of simple issues, or an idea they had from an advertisement. Most people know very little about who they are voting for. Thats why slander and name calling can actually be effective.. most people won’t know any different.

So it is clear that a larger budget and better fund-raising is the key to winning elections because it allows for more voter contact and people learn who you are.The other fact people need to know is that campaigns must be planned backwards.. If you run out of money two weeks before the election you are dead in the water.. so candidates usually plan from election day backwards.

Because we have so many candidates in the pool it is actually very easy to find out who we should be voting for, because losing races will stand out in the financial department.

As of March 31

Robert Hurt has roughly 200k on hand and has spent half of his money on his campaign. He has received 45k in PAC funding and raised the rest. He has not spent any of his own money on his campaign. So far he has rasied 1/4 of what it will take to compete with Parriello.. Notice I said compete, not win. Last time Goode spent 100k more and lost.

Verga has raised 320k and spend just over a third of it. He has even more ground to make up to compete with Tom.Over 85% of this came from his own pocket. That does not show fund-raising skill, and unless he has another 1.5 million in cash he can donate, he better learn how the raise money.

McPadden has raised 250k, but an even higher percentage came from his own pocket. Once again no fund-raising.

Boyd has only managed to raise 70k and has already spent all but 20k of it. I am not sure how he expects to even compete with the last three candidates I mentioned.

Feda Morton has raised only 50k and only has around 7k left. (I remind everyone these numbers are more than a month old). She did manage to bring in some PAC money, but a campaign could spend 2k in a single letter to a part of the 5th district.

McKelvey has spent twice as much as he has raised yet still reports to have another half million on hand for the rest of the campaign.

I can’t talk about Ferrin or Clark because I would need to do more digging in government websites which are no fun to use.. But I can not imagine the picture is any different.

So what is going to change once one of these people wins the nomination. Well first off they are going to get support from the local republican party groups, PAC money might appear from interested parties, and new donors are going to show up because their dollars will be spent on a person who is going to run.. not just against other republicans.

After reading these numbers and giving it some thought I am a bit disturbed. I hope someone out there has a good fund-raising plan to bring in another million dollars or more to the campaign, because without it we are not going to make it very far. I don’t even know what else to say.. Its great there are some people who want to run on their own dime, but they better learn how to raise funds. Hurt is the only one in the race who has not spent his own money, and will probably be able to raise the funds required to compete at his current rate.

Once again I can see a clear reason for several candidates to turn in the hat and let this district elect a Republican to congress. Right now the bottom candidates are actually doing more damage than good, and it strikes me as selfish. Anyone who runs for congress has to have an ego the size of texas, but people should realize that their own needs need to come after the needs of the people of the district. For that reason alone I could never vote for Feda, Boyd, Ferrin, etc..

I am sad because I think people in this district are about to learn a hard lesson.. Politicians like Hurt who run time and time again can raise funds, already have lots of connections, and can more easily win a race. I don’t like Hurt because he is a politician, but if a half dozen people are going to crowd the field and ruin it for the rest of us, I am not sure I like them either.

I will vote for McPadden myself.. but even voting for Ferrin, Feda, Boyd is not going to hurt this race as much as the candidates crowding the field.

For the bottom three: When are you going to wake up and get it? You are actually working against our common goals because you think you need to run, even when you have shown no skill at running a race, raising money, or reaching enough people to make a difference. Its time to gracefully end this nonsense. We are in a battleground district, but you are going to hand it to either another career politician, or a democrat!